Over the next decade, we will start to see the roll-out of the next generation carbon-neutral ships designed to meet IMO goals, says Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO DNV GL – Maritime. But the fuel decision is difficult, as there are several potentially successful candidates. For now, he considers dual-fuel LNG a ‘robust choice’.
For shipping, Covid-19 has created a deeper level of uncertainty in terms of energy use. Above all the corona pandemic has resulted in delayed growth and behavioural change in 2020 that DNV GL estimates will result in an 8 per cent drop in global energy demand, says Ørbeck-Nilssen, during DNV GL’s “Alternative Fuels Online Conference”, which took place on 15 October. He expects energy demand to pick up again in 2021, but after that will fluctuate annually between 6 to 8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels up to 2050.
Yet, energy use is not the biggest factor in decarbonisation. Ørbeck-Nilssen emphasises these are in fact the fuels we use.
With an expected lifespan of 30 years, the ships that will have to comply with the IMO target are being ordered within the next decade. IMO’s aim is to reduce total emissions from shipping by 50 per cent in 2050, and to reduce the average carbon intensity by 40 per cent in 2030 and 70 per cent in 2050, compared to 2008. Ørbeck-Nilssen: ‘This means some fuel choices must be made today.’
And this is a complex choice according to the CEO, as there are a number of potential fuels and ‘it is diffcult to point out the clear winners’. He does say that E-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol seem the most promising possibilities in the long run, but which one(s) we’ll see in the future, depends on ‘availability, price and policy measures,’ says Ørbeck-Nilssen.
Dual-fuel LNG
Ørbeck-Nilssen states ‘there is no silver bullet, as decarbonisation is the grand challenge of our time’. However, he does make a case for LNG. First of all, he says ‘we can’t allow perfect to become the enemy of good. We mustn’t wait for the ideal fuel to arrive before taking action. Dual-fuel LNG for example is a robust choice for today. It is cost-effective, compliant and flexible.’
In other words, he feels LNG may not be the full answer to decarbonising shipping, but it is a good transitional fuel. It would help shipping to achieve the IMO 2030 goal at least. At a later stage, LNG could be replaced by a carbon neutral alternative.
As the graph presented at the conference shows, the use of LNG is expected to increase this decade. Its use will only start to decline after 2040.
